Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Regional
decks
4
(8.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
11-13-0
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.3%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1275
· median 1267
· range 1145–1421
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1164
Q3 1365
1520
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.7% | +16.0 |
| Wind Allies | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 2.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.6% | +13.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Wind Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
